*Based on the following basic 12-team fantasy league starting roster
QB, WR, WR, WR, RB, RB, WR/RB, TE, K, DEF

1-1 Adrian Peterson, RB, Minnesota Vikings

No doubt, I’m breaking some huge news here. When it comes to fantasy football, there is no other skill player in the NFL—Reggie Bush being a close second—who is a bigger threat to break a big play practically every time they touch the ball. The glaring difference between Peterson and Bush (why one is ranked first overall and the other’s name shouldn’t be mentioned in the first two or three rounds.) is that Peterson is more than just a big play threat. He is ACTUALLY a really, really good rusher. In the interest of full disclosure, I should note that I have a very rigid personal restriction in that I never draft a player with a history of multiple injuries, so Peterson would not be my selection in this position. This rule has admittedly cost me several great selections that wound up producing stellar seasons. So for those of you who are more willing to shrug off such a history, this is a player who, with a completely healthy season and o-line, could smash Eric Dickerson’s single-season rushing record. Other than myself, who in their right mind would pass up on that kind of potential?

1-2 Brian Westbrook, RB, Philadelphia Eagles

Westbrook is entering his ninth season in the league, making him a prime candidate for ‘Declining Player of the Year’, but I’d be willing to bet he has at least two more seasons of dominance left in him. The other con goes back to the aforementioned ‘injury-prone’ reference we made regarding Peterson, and 2008 was one of the more frustrating years for Westbrook owners. It would be naïve to take Westbrook without acknowledging the fact that he is unlikely to play an entire season. The key here is to pick him up for the often unbelievable production that he offers when healthy with the hope that the time he misses will not be during weeks 14-16.

1-3 Steven Jackson, RB, St. Louis Rams

My personal selection for 2009 Comeback Player of the Year, I expect to see Steven Jackson come storming back onto the scene in a big way, much like the way he broke onto the scene in a big way in 2006. The passing game should be a huge question mark for St. Louis this season, resulting in an abnormally heavy reliance on Jackson to carry the load in 2009. And even when circumstances call for a pass, you can always count on Jackson to be one of Bulger’s first two throwing options.

1-4 DeAngelo Williams, RB, Carolina Panthers

Put him on virtually ANY of the other 31 NFL teams, and DeAngelo Williams’ unbelievable second half of the 2009 season would have been much more highly publicized. In the last nine games of the season, Williams averaged 122 rush yards and 1.8 touchdowns per game. Translated over a full 16-game season, that would have been almost 2000 yards rushing and 29 touchdowns. It’s only slightly ironic that Williams’ emergence came after the Panthers spent their first overall selection on another running back. Look for Williams to pick up where he left off in 2008. And in leagues where running backs don’t get points per receptions, he merits first overall consideration.

1-5 Matt Forte, RB, Chicago Bears

Were it not for the fact that Matt Forte’s accomplishments took place during a rookie campaign, he would be second only to Peterson in these rankings. But there is always that risk of the dreaded ‘sophomore slump’, so buyer beware. Forte brings a perfect combination of strength and agility and, most importantly, ridiculous consistency. Considering the Bears’ offseason acquisitions of Jay Cutler and Orlando Pace, I would bet that Forte is the absolute safest option in this season’s first-round, sophomore slump notwithstanding.

1-6 Michael Turner, RB, Atlanta Falcons

It is overwhelmingly hard to believe that Turner, entering his 7th season in the NFL, is going to have a repeat of his stellar Falcon debut in 2008, when he yielded 1700 rushing yards and 17 touchdowns. Turner ranks 6th on this list because, like Forte, he was remarkably consistent last season and even if he fails to match his 2008 numbers, that consistency is a nice thing to have on a fantasy football roster. But if you are playing in a PPR league, I would hold off just a little bit longer on Turner (six receptions in 2008).

1-7 LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, San Diego Chargers

I couldn’t mention the consistency of young runners like Forte and Turner without also offering praise for the ultimate picture of consistency over the last decade in the NFL. Until he missed a few games last season, it seemed absolutely nothing could keep LT from 100 yards and a touchdown in every game. Even if he has another pro bowl season in 2009, it is a safe bet that this is likely going to be his last appearance in the preseason top 10. Good news is, having returned considerably close to full health, his last ‘hurrah’ might just be his best yet.

1-8 Chris Johnson, RB, Tennessee Titans

The dazzling speed of Chris Johnson shot some life into the perennially boring offense of Tennessee last year, and you can expect much of the same from him in his second season. It’s an unfortunate thing that he has to share red zone carries with someone like LenDale White, who has shown a remarkable nose for the end zone. But Johnson still managed to give himself value, scoring 10 touchdowns of his own. Look for defenses to really zone in on Johnson this season, but he has the vision and speed to continue to create positive yardage on his touches

1-9 Steve Slaton, RB, Houston Texans

I’m catching a lot of flak for placing Slaton this high on my list, but I honestly believe Slaton could end up being the best rookie out of his class. He is certainly the best receiving back out of the three (Forte, Johnson, Slaton) and when they manage to stay healthy, Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson help to create one of the most effective offenses in the league. The Texans are likely to be legitimate contenders this season and Slaton will have no problem carrying the load for their offense.

1-10 Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars

MJD could be the dark horse of the first round. With Fred Taylor officially out of the picture, there is absolutely nothing standing in the way of Jones-Drew becoming a top five back in this league. On that same note, there are now no more excuses for any kind of lack of production. As MJD goes, so will the Jaguars, and they will be counting on him to hold up his end.

1-11 Brandon Jacobs, RB, New York Giants

The Giants like to pretend that they prefer to spread the carries around to all of their running backs, but when Jacobs is healthy, there is no one they would rather have touching the ball. Jacobs is devastatingly powerful and punishes every defender that dares to attempt to bring him down. He is also deceptively fast, which makes him an all-around threat not to be taken lightly. If he is still around here at the end of the first round of your draft, it shouldn’t even require a second thought. Pick him up and be very confidant with the selection.

1-12 Frank Gore, RB, San Francisco 49ers

If Steven Jackson doesn’t become the Comeback Player of the Year, it will be because Frank Gore stole the title from him. Gore has a lot to look forward to, especially with the 49ers looking to be very run-heavy in their play-selection. He could return to his 2006 form, when he looked poised to become one of the top three backs in the league. Still, injury concerns should not be overlooked. If you take Frank Gore, be sure to pick up Glen Coffee in the mid-to-later rounds to serve as a handcuff.