The 2009 NFL season is half way thru, with only the NY Giants and Houston Texans not having their bye thus far. We can now start to get a feel for who the real contenders are, and who the pretenders were earlier this season. Below I discuss the way I see the AFC shaking out, supported by stats from my statistical model I have built over the last 2 years.

Just a reminder for those not familiar with the model, it is all based on the stats I have tracked which I found the highest correlation to pts scored / pts against through a decade of back-testing. I ran the correlation for the first half of season, and my offensive stats correlate 84% with pts scored, while defensive stats correlate 78% with pts yielded. When also considering the best team’s rate well and the bad teams rate poorly in my model, it is a very strong indicator of team success.

NOTE: I am taking an average of each week's yards per carry to come up with my numbers. For example, for yards per carry I am averaging each week's amount instead of taking total yards for season divided by total carries, so some numbers might be slightly different than if you looked these up on nfl.com.

Legend

YPC = yards per carry

YPA = yards per pass attempt

YPP = yards per offensive play

FD = first downs

FDR = first downs rushing

C% = completion percentage

S = sacks

SA = sacks allowed

INT = interceptions

C = third and fourth down conversion percentage

Likely AFC playoff teams

Indy - rated #1 overall (1st in OFF, 12th in DEF). SOS YTD is 29th, remainder of season is 8th so their competition will pick up some. Stat wise they struggle rushing the ball, rated 25th in YPC and FDR. But their offense is humming along quite nicely overall, 3rd in FD, 1st in YPA, 2nd in C%, 2nd in SA, 2nd in YPP and 2nd in C. On the other side of ball, their rushing defense is ranked 10th to 15th in most categories, but their passing defense is very strong led by 2nd in YPA, 4th in S and 7th in INT. Also, they are rated 4th in YPP, but they are struggling some rated 30th in C. Overall a very strong team that passes the ball extremely well, while defending the pass near the top of league. Potential bad matchups could be teams with a very good QB that can offset their top notch passing defense, or a strong rushing team that could keep that potent offense off the field. Lastly, the loss of Bob Sanders for the remainder of the season could be a huge issue come playoff time when the competition picks up big time.

Pittsburgh – rated #2 overall (2nd in OFF, 4th in DEF). SOS YTD is 30th, remainder of season is 20th, so their opponents have not been the strongest thus far or for rest of season. They have only played 1 top 13 team this season and that was last week against Denver, a convincing win. Very similar to Indy, Pitt is average rushing the ball, but very strong in FD (4th), YPA (5th) and C% (1st). They also rate 4th in YPP and C. Defensively they rank in Top ten in every category I track, led by 1st in FDR, 3rd in YPC and 4th in S. The Steelers are ranked 8th in YPP defensively, but like Indianapolis they are near bottom of league in defensive C, allowing 44% which puts them at 29th in league. The defending champs have to be looked at as a real threat to win the AFC and potentially their 3rd Super Bowl in 5 seasons. Potential bad matchups for Pittsburgh would be teams that can really rush the passer as their offensive line is not that great, and Big Ben can make some bad decisions at times trying to force passes to make a big play. A second type of team that could give them trouble is a team that has good offensive line play which will offset the Steelers success blitzing.

Denver – rated #8 overall (12th on OFF, 6th on DEF) but has fallen from as high as #2 a few weeks back following back to back big losses against Pittsburgh and Baltimore. SOS YTD is 8th, remainder of season is 22nd. The Broncos have the most impressive grouping of wins in the early season beating Cincinnati (6-2), New England (6-2), Dallas (6-2) and San Diego (5-3), but their recent struggles have some questioning the legitimacy of this team. In past years rushing the ball was always a strength for the Broncos under Shanahan, but this season under new coach McDaniels they have opted for a spread attack, which is helping their passing ratings but hurting their rushing stats. Rushing they are 24th in YPC, 19th in FDR while ranking 15th in YPA, 13th in C%, 7th in SA and 2nd in INTs thrown. Denver’s overall offense ranks 19th in YPP, a very low number for potential playoff success. However, defensively they have been on of the best units all season long even with the last 2 weeks of disappointment. They currently rate 7th in YPC, 5th in FDA, 6th in YPA and 3rd in S. C% remains a big issue as they are allowing 64% thru 8 games, rating them 26th in league. Denver has started to look suspect on both sides of the ball the last 2 games, something that will need to be worked out moving forward. Denver will continue to have trouble against physical, run first teams as their defense is more of a finesse unit and they are not that big up front. Their addition of Ty Law last week did not address this weakness and will have minimal impact on their post-season success from my vantage point.

New England – rated #4 overall (2nd on OFF, 12th on DEF). SOS YTD is 21st, remainder of season is 3rd, so things are going to pick up for the Patriots closing out the second half of their season. It seems all the changes and retirements on the defensive side of the ball are starting to catch up with the Patriots, as they have struggled particularly against the run this season rating 26th in YPC and S. However, they do rate favorably in many other stats, notably 6th in FDA, 4th in YPA and 2nd in C%. Offensively Brady appears to be back and fully healthy leading the Pats to ratings of 8th in YPA, 7th in C%, 5th in YPP and 1st in FD. They have struggled some running the ball rating 17th in YPR and 13th in FDR which could be driven by injuries to Fred Taylor and Sammy Morris – both of whom are expected back at some point this season. The Patriots two losses both came on road, against Denver and the NY Jets who are rated 6th and 3rd in defense. The Patriots could struggle against teams with strong secondaries and pass rushers as their offense is not well balanced at all. They could also have a tough time against teams that are effective rushing the ball.

Cincinnati – rated 17th overall (13th on OFF, 19th on DEF). SOS YTD is 2nd, remainder of season is 31st so the Bengals have navigated through the toughest portion of their schedule 6-2, including sweeping the Ravens. More than perhaps any team in AFC, statistically speaking they are very balanced ranking between 10-15 in most categories offensively. Their main calling card this season on offense has been C as they are 8th in league and been very fortunate to have good timing for most of those. They have also protected Palmer very well rating 5th in SA. Defensively however they have struggled big time against the pass. The Bengals defense rates 20th in YPA, 25th in C%, 19th in YPP and 13th in C. They have been strong against the run however, rating 8th in YPC. The Bengals have played 8 games thus far, and 5 of those 8 were against teams in my Top 7, which makes their record very impressive right now, especially considering that last second miracle loss to Denver in Week 1. However, they do have a lot of weaknesses, in particular, defending the pass – which is not a good problem to have in the AFC with the playoffs likely going through QBs with the names of Peyton Manning, Brady, Big Ben and Rivers. Flat out the Bengals are highly likely to make the playoffs with their weak closing schedule, but need home field and potentially some weather issues to have a shot at winning a game or two.

San Diego – rated 21st overall (20th on OFF, 19th on DEF). SOS YTD is 13th, remainder of season is 23rd. The Chargers are usual slow starters, and the same happened this season starting 2-3 before winning their last 3 games. SD has lots of issues on both sides of the ball, starting with their rushing offense ranking dead last in YPC and FDR. That is pretty strange considering they still have LT (yes a banged up version but he still isn’t horrible) and the new and explosive Sproles back there. They also rate a lowly 17th in FD, 19th in C% and S. Rivers has made a lot of big plays through the air which has been the key to this season so far, as he rates 6th in YPA and 14th in C. Defensively their stats are kind of a mixed bag, rating 12th in YPC, 11th in YPA, 6th in S and 7th in YPP. However, they are struggling allowing a lot of FDR, a high C%, and ranking 29th in C. Clearly the Chargers need to be more consistent on both sides of the ball to have any success this post-season, and the Chargers are to the point where the only thing that matters is January. This team could potentially see wholesale changes if they do not reach the Super Bowl. Bad matchups for SD would be teams with strong passing defenses because SD is very one dimensional relying on the pass offensively. It would not surprise me if the Chargers finished the second half of the season strong, winning the AFC West again and winning a playoff game or two. However, I feel their window has now closed for any chance at a Super Bowl appearance.

Those are my likely playoff teams in the AFC. The Baltimore Ravens and Houston Texans appear to be the only potential teams that could bust up the party above, but both teams have been very inconsistent thus far and need to close extremely strong, and have one or two of the above teams falter, which I frankly do not see happening. The three teams that appear most likely to falter would be Denver, San Diego and Cincinnati, but either Denver or SD is a lock as they will win the AFC West, and Cincinnati has a very easy closing schedule so I don’t see anymore than potentially one of the above teams not making it, barring injury of course.

I will be back later in the week with a look at the NFC.

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